Help! The furture of the XLR

[ccclarke]

Just to clarify, the above-quoted post -attributed to me, is an amalgam of a reply to a reply, so all of the statements contained in it are not mine.

That being said, I'd like to add a dose of reality to this discussion for consideration and feedback.

The market will determine the ultimate success of this proposed project, but there are some areas that haven't been discussed to ascertain if it's worth moving forward or not.

Chiefly:

1. Mods to the Basic Design: There are two configurations of headlights to manufacture to support the XLR community. Those built before 2006 and those subsequently changed to incorporate the steerable projector bulbs contained in the Adaptive Forward Headlight enhancement. The connectors are different as well, though pigtail adapters are not as hard to build.

2. Numbers: Roughly 2/3's of XLR production occurred during the first two model years. This would favor building the 1st style over the second, even though a lot of the legwork is done for the first. The vendor needs to factor this in when deciding whether to proceed with a production run covering all XLR years.

3. Profit: How many would be sold at a price-point to justify the expense to build them? There's more than just 3D printing of the housing involved. Glass projector bulbs, metal shutters, linkages, etc. Metal parts can be printed, but those can be really expensive. I experienced this last year on a low-yield part and it was cheaper to have them machined traditionally, which was still expensive.

4. Advertising - this ties in with numbers and profit. How many current XLR owners are registered on this site? (The other two sites are effectively comatose.) If say, even 10% are aware of this site, (1500) and you have 10% of them ordering head lamps, (150) over an extended period of time, can the vendor make enough profit to justify the effort?

3D printing is great for just-in-time parts stocking; you only need to stock a couple of items for immediate shipment and crank out the rest as stock dwindles. This is great for easy-to design items that have higher yields and profit margins, but in this case, the market isn't very large. What's the lead time for glass projectors or the motors to move them --in the case of Adaptive Headlights?

5. R&D: eBay has headlights for as low as $200 all the way up to nearly $2000 listed at the moment. For <$500, the vendor could start, with the hope of recouping the development funds (labor, materials) later if demand warrants. Finding someone willing to part with a headlamp (or pair) that may or may not be in the same condition they were submitted (unless they're bad, and they don't care) for the promise of a new set is a risk. I'm not saying it can't be done, but I would want more assurance than a promise - An example of their completed work would be beneficial to get the party started.

I've seen a lot of good ideas coupled with great intentions blinded by the harsh light of reality. Being able to design and build something (Engineering) is one thing. Getting the word out and selling it at a fair price to make a profit (Marketing) is the deal-breaker. I want this idea to gain traction, but don't want to see anyone on either side get burned.

CC

 

[beaver_jd]

Future of XLR

CC. I sure enjoy reading your posts. You do have some excellent comments. A couple of points ! I just stumbled on to this site last summer by accident. I had never heard of it and I have owned my car for over 4 years. I am not mechanically inclined but have learned a lot reading the different post. Somehow the word needs to get out out about this web site. My dealer in Palm Springs is very knowledgeable on the XLR but has never heard of this site. I know that I feel more comfortable with my car knowing I can get help here . If I had a problem that could not be solved I could drive from Southern CA. to someone on this site for help.
With regards to the head lights I think a number of people would buy them for as an insurance policy. I was going to buy a second one of these cars for my home up north but have changed my mind because of the light problems. I would think if someone could make lights we should be making the least expensive. My car has the adaptive lights but I would care less as long as I had lights that work. Just my thoughts.
John F.

 

[Z1.]

I've done this before...

I'm thinking it would be very hard to get someone to give up a pair of headlights, when the outcome is not assured? I don't doubt your statement that they wouldn't still be in business if they weren't good at their business. However, any time someone strays into a new outcome, mistakes happen and there is a learning curve. Has this company made some headlights so as to feel the outcome is highly likely? At this point it seems like you are asking for an irreplaceable part, with not high enough assurance of success. If I still had my car, I wouldn't be willing to take that risk. Even if I had a spare set, the risk seems too high.

A good point but nothing would happen to the headlights. IF and a big IF I had a pair, I would take them to the scanning company and they would do a proper and through evaluation only (which has not been done yet) and we would discuss the true feasibility of it. If practical and they show me evidence of past successes with similar products I would then take the headlights to another scanning company for their evaluation..... then start a kickstarter page. I NEVER take financial risks, only time risks. And there is MRI scanning (twice the costs) that does not harm the headlights.

Those headlights are worth way more than $2000 to some owners. I'm betting on it. No headlight = worthless car.

 

[ccclarke]

I'm just playing the Devil's Advocate here, and nothing more. I visited 3DForecast's site Forecast 3D - About us and it's comparable to some of the rapid prototyping companies I've been involved with for aerospace applications.

You've addressed most aspects of the possibility of scanning, which is one of the easier aspects of the job -from a technical standpoint.

However . . . The headlight assemblies aren't one part; to properly engineer and produce them, they need to be completely disassembled and each part needs to be scanned to ensure proper fitment. Material thicknesses (especially on stress and mating points) need to be measured, along with grooves and edge lips for part alignment (if applicable). Still do-able, but afterwards, the light is not going to be the same again. This is why I'd recommend buying a pair of cheap headlights from eBay and breaking them down to their components to ensure the highest degree of reverse-engineering and fitment accuracy.

If the design is copyrighted, that's another consideration. Head lights are safety items, so you need to consider the liability factor. Would they need DOT approval? You'll need legal beagles to answer those questions in advance.

I work both sides of 3D model creation - engineering and VFX. If I was producing a 3D model for standard CG FX, all I need are the outside dimensions and surface attributes of what the eye/virtual camera will see. But to build and produce something, all the individual parts must be modeled (front and rear) in a CAD program, then modified to be acceptable for 3D printing before the proper material is deposited, depending on the application. This isn't a show-stopper, but the engineering model head lights are most likely going to be sacrificial. If you've ever taken one apart, then you know what I mean.

What are your thoughts on production/sourcing of parts that can't be printed?

And then there's the all-important marketing aspect. If head lights could be produced and were sold for say, $2k each, many potential owners (in the know) would shy away from the car and likewise, those that do own them would be more likely to sell, not wanting to deal with the risk. Expensive parts appeal mostly to hard-core collectors and enthusiasts wanting spares, which is a very small, niche market. One factor in overall sales capacity is how many XLRs are still on the road now? What is the reliability factor in determining MTBF or crash loss to predict the size of the potential market? As long as you're competing against cheaper (used) headlights from sources like eBay, you could easily end up be behind the pricing curve, limiting sales, (and profitability) further. As a general rule, buyers will look for the best deal. The used market offers (some) good deals. You wouldn't be the only game in town. eBay and Amazon are tough competitors - even if you use them to boost sales, buyers can compare prices in one spot.

Overly Expensive Headlights = Worthess car to potential and many present owners. (Stock @ nearly $1k is bad enough!)

The XLR is not a collectible (yet) --like a 60's GTO or Corvette. XLR's are worth $75k mainly to the owners who bought them new, AKA sentimental value. ATP is about $35k, with most '04/'05's @ $20k or less.

These are some of the major issues to address on a gofundme page to potential investors.

CC

 

[xlrlist01]

This is a really good point and something to consider. Also the brackets holding the lights in place, the light adjustment guides, the connections to the motors that turn the lights could also be unique. I just get a headache thinking about it.

Maybe this needs thinking about a different way.
What is wanted is a headlight unit that:
* Fits in the space
* Looks about right
* Meets legal obligations
* Can be adjusted
* Casts sufficient light where it is wanted
* Has the same wiring and bolt pattern

To achieve those does not require an exact match replacement, but instead the 'outer' could be a simple good looking cover (little more than a transparent box), while the inner has approved light fittings that can do the required task and use approved parts.

There might be a decent market for such a product as there are many 'unique' light units now, a 'universal' inner (or a small number of modular options) that fits into a range of outers might find a wide take-up?

 

[Z1.]

No Important Endevor is Easy

I'm just playing the Devil's Advocate here, and nothing more. I visited 3DForecast's site Forecast 3D - About us and it's comparable to some of the rapid prototyping companies I've been involved with for aerospace applications.

And Baja 500 rally's. They make most of the headlights for the race teams. For me it's the convenience, they are close to where I live and I have worked with them on other projects. In their reception area of their headquarters are examples of successfully produced headlights.



You've addressed most aspects of the possibility of scanning, which is one of the easier aspects of the job -from a technical standpoint.

However . . . The headlight assemblies aren't one part; to properly engineer and produce them, they need to be completely disassembled and each part needs to be scanned to ensure proper fitment. Material thicknesses (especially on stress and mating points) need to be measured, along with grooves and edge lips for part alignment (if applicable). Still do-able, but afterwards, the light is not going to be the same again. This is why I'd recommend buying a pair of cheap headlights from eBay and breaking them down to their components to ensure the highest degree of reverse-engineering and fitment accuracy.

My company has worked on cold air-intake kits for vehicles. We would first mock up a rough prototype with Home Depot plumbing pipe, I would take measurements and input them into a CAD program, then print out a 3D demo. Many demos would be made until exact fitment and functionality were correct. It's going to be about the same with the headlights. End product will be better than original.



If the design is copyrighted, that's another consideration. Head lights are safety items, so you need to consider the liability factor. Would they need DOT approval? You'll need legal beagles to answer those questions in advance.

I dare GM to bother me, I would counter sue them for reckless disregard for human safety. My company is an LLC, I walk away if there is trouble. Create another company. I have never respected DOT enough to care about their approval, neither do most Chinese companies that turn out automotive products. Did you know most air intake kits are CARB illegal in California (customer's don't care).



I work both sides of 3D model creation - engineering and VFX. If I was producing a 3D model for standard CG FX, all I need are the outside dimensions and surface attributes of what the eye/virtual camera will see. But to build and produce something, all the individual parts must be modeled (front and rear) in a CAD program, then modified to be acceptable for 3D printing before the proper material is deposited, depending on the application. This isn't a show-stopper, but the engineering model head lights are most likely going to be sacrificial. If you've ever taken one apart, then you know what I mean.

What are your thoughts on production/sourcing of parts that can't be printed?

No disrespect but you are making the process more complicated then it is. Their just headlights. GM basically took the headlight hardware from BMW (the CAM actuators and MAF sensor on the XLR Northstar engine are all BMW barrowed), I would incorporate the newer and more common energy efficient 2008+ BWW X5 LED halo and ring hardware. XENON is dead, good riddance.



And then there's the all-important marketing aspect. If head lights could be produced and were sold for say, $2k each, many potential owners (in the know) would shy away from the car and likewise, those that do own them would be more likely to sell, not wanting to deal with the risk. Expensive parts appeal mostly to hard-core collectors and enthusiasts wanting spares, which is a very small, niche market. One factor in overall sales capacity is how many XLRs are still on the road now? What is the reliability factor in determining MTBF or crash loss to predict the size of the potential market? As long as you're competing against cheaper (used) headlights from sources like eBay, you could easily end up be behind the pricing curve, limiting sales, (and profitability) further. As a general rule, buyers will look for the best deal. The used market offers (some) good deals. You wouldn't be the only game in town. eBay and Amazon are tough competitors - even if you use them to boost sales, buyers can compare prices in one spot.

Ebay and Amazon do not make car parts!!! What you see on these sites is the ending of availability. Hell, if they did I wouldn't even try. Just try getting a left hand side headlight now. The Chinese manufacturers, that's who I worry about, they are very very good at RE. I know of a company in China, if I sent them a pair of headlights: 2 months later and after a $2700 prototype fee, the headlights would be available and cost $250.00 for a pair. I went this route before on a different product, but they do not ever let go of the CAD files (even though I paid for it) making improvements / changes impossible. Also overseas shipping costs are staggeringly high and money exchange (FX Intl) is a hassle.


.
Overly Expensive Headlights = Worthess car to potential and many present owners. (Stock @ nearly $1k is bad enough!)

The XLR is not a collectible (yet) --like a 60's GTO or Corvette. XLR's are worth $75k mainly to the owners who bought them new, AKA sentimental value. ATP is about $35k, with most '04/'05's @ $20k or less.

These are some of the major issues to address on a gofundme page to potential investors.

Any ride that gets me a girlfriend is worth saving.

 

[nerkpowers]

I guess we know the situation. Constantly b!tching about it doesn't help any of us that own our cars and love every moment we are driving these great cars. I was at the Artomobilia last year. There were at least 8 Deloreans there. Those folks love their cars and do what they have to to keep them on the road. I have to believe our lack of parts availability pales in comparison to theirs, yet and they are keeping theirs on the road. There were 9,000 Delorean's made. What we need is folks helping other members locate the parts they need.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Z1.]

You can't Locate What Isn't There

I guess we know the situation. Constantly b!tching about it doesn't help any of us that own our cars and love every moment we are driving these great cars. I was at the Artomobilia last year. There were at least 8 Deloreans there. Those folks love their cars and do what they have to to keep them on the road. I have to believe our lack of parts availability pales in comparison to theirs, yet and they are keeping theirs on the road. There were 9,000 Delorean's made. What we need is folks helping other members locate the parts they need.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

You can't locate parts that don't exist! Delorean owners don't ***** anymore because there are companies out there that make new Delorean parts. One company sells new Deloreans (~$16,000++).

 

[XLRATING]

Found the real reason we can't get tail lights from a parts supplier: "I apologize for not getting back to you last night, but after doing some digging/locating I found that they are on intergalactic back order."

 

[DOUG ASHBY]

About that GM bankruptcy

While watching the comments come in on this, and other, subjects, I have come up with two observations and a question:
1. I see where someone wanted to start a class action lawsuit against GM for non-support or somesuch. A bunch of people were saying they would support it. But then another post mentioned that since GM declared bankruptcy in 2009 and then reformed as a 'new' company, a lawsuit against THIS GM would not be viable because it's not liable for anything done by THAT GM.
2. I see various people talking about reproducing headlights, or taillights, or other scarce parts for the XLR. Then someone else will say, "But GM will nail you for patent infringement!"

Question: If the General Motors that patented all those parts on Cadillacs and other cars no longer exists, how can the current GM claim it still controls those patents? If the old GM's liabilities died with its bankruptcy, didn't its assets also die? How can the new GM stop me from reproducing headlights for a XLR any more than it can keep me from reproducing readlights for a Studebaker?

 

[XLRATING]

It's somewhat the "magic" of bankruptcy - the idea, whether corporate or individual, is to shed your liabilities & keep at least some assets for a "fresh start." Even for an individual, you get to keep a certain amount of assets; how things work also depends on the type of bankruptcy since liquidation/closing isn't the only option. It's way more complicated than that for a corporate giant like GM, & government involvement may have altered it further, but the basic idea is the same. May not seem fair or right, but that's bankruptcy.

I suspect headlights (even apart from adaptive forward lighting) & tail lights remain under patent because they are part of the signature Cadillac "look" with lighting flowing into the fenders, carried forward into the current models. On the other hand, the third brake light isn't necessarily part of that signature, so the patent for that has been released & that part is available for our cars.

 

[DOUG ASHBY]

I was afraid of that

It's somewhat the "magic" of bankruptcy - the idea, whether corporate or individual, is to shed your liabilities & keep at least some assets for a "fresh start." Even for an individual, you get to keep a certain amount of assets; how things work also depends on the type of bankruptcy since liquidation/closing isn't the only option. It's way more complicated than that for a corporate giant like GM, & government involvement may have altered it further, but the basic idea is the same. May not seem fair or right, but that's bankruptcy.

I suspect headlights (even apart from adaptive forward lighting) & tail lights remain under patent because they are part of the signature Cadillac "look" with lighting flowing into the fenders, carried forward into the current models. On the other hand, the third brake light isn't necessarily part of that signature, so the patent for that has been released & that part is available for our cars.

Yes, I was afraid it would be something like that. I'm a naïf when it comes to legal matters, and figured someone would be able to explain it. Unfortunately, you explained it just the way I didn't want to hear it! Thanks for the info.

 

[XLRATING]

Yes, I was afraid it would be something like that. I'm a naïf when it comes to legal matters, and figured someone would be able to explain it. Unfortunately, you explained it just the way I didn't want to hear it! Thanks for the info.

Legit question, confusing stuff - and most of my life in the real world is giving info people would rather not hear, so it's all good!

 

[Bakertech]

Reply to The Future of the XLR

Your points are all valid -- parts-wise. But there's another part of owning a car that you can't place monetary value on.

As any vehicle ages, parts naturally fail. The risk factor increase exponentially with a low-volume product. As soon as logistic support dries up, you're pretty much on your own. If one is real lucky, a support group of like-minded folks bands together to help each other out. You definitely have that going for you here.

A guy in Oregon who rebuilds the folding top hydraulic pump and supplies better-than-stock replacement lines. Questions and answers from knowledgeable people who have had the same problems. There's a wealth of resources here to keep your XLR road-worthy. Okay, so you can't have brand-new headlights. A working used one will eventually appear on eBay or through a national salvage yard search. Maybe a member has a line on something someone needs.

It really comes down to how much you want to deal with owning a really special car that needs a little extra attention on the road. Is the XLR an ideal daily driver for someone with only one car? Probably not, but you could end up being one of the lucky ones who rarely has a major issue. The engine is pretty darn stout.

Life is a crap shoot. Anything might (and can) happen, so it's best to concentrate on the things you have some measure of control over. If headlight availability is keeping you from enjoying your car, buy a replacement part when it becomes available. I've waited months for the right item to appear on eBay, but eventually it does and your patience is rewarded. (And I mean weird, off-the-wall stuff too.)

Remember when you first brought your XLR home and lingered a little longer than usual when turning off the garage light before going into the house? (I did until the day we parted.) Maybe you still do too. If so, then think about how to maintain that feeling if it's important to you. If you have second doubts, or just want to not deal with the extra work involved, by all means, let go and use the experience to guide you on your next car love affair. I don't know of a single owner here who isn't a die-hard car person. We all gravitate towards cars that make us smile when we sit in them and savor even the quick last-minute runs to get toothpicks at the store. We find excuses to get on the road and enjoy what our cars offer -that's what car people do, and it separates us from people who drive from point A to B. A car is a means to an end for them, like a refrigerator is to me. Cleaning and polishing isn't a chore, it's a process that makes us smile at a job well-done. Obsessive? Check!

If your car gives you worries that decrease your enjoyment of it, that's an ideal prompt to start shopping for the next one to obsess over. As these cars age, they start to accumulate stories, some good, and some not so. They're amply documented here.

In the end, only you can determine what your level of commitment is, and whatever decision you make, I hope you are pleased with the result.







CC

Very well Scribed CC A comparable situation to a High Maintenance Girlfriend.

 

[buki]

As Always!

Your consistency in elevating all of our appreciation for these remarkable cars continues CC. Add the quality of your writing and the circle is complete. Beautifully explained my man. And to all of the rest of us we must understand that CC moved on and still graces us with his knowledge as if he never left. I appreciate it immensely and I know everyone else does too.

 

[Agitated Monkey]

I am friends with Todd Chezum of Forecast 3D, which specializes in making automotive parts including headlights using commercial 3D printers (high temp polycarbonates for the headlights). But before Todd can make the headlights, 3D scans have to be made for which I have another friend, Martin Horton, of Blue Point Scan who specializes in that. The big problem that is stopping me with this project is that a pair of headlights have to be destroyed for the scans (the headlights sliced open and inner scans performed). Once the 3D scan files of the headlights are perfected and viable; BMW LED projectors, LED rings, etc. can be added and other desired modifications can be made. If anyone has a pair in fair condition (cracks, burned sections or crazing do not matter in the scan)..........I would be willing to give you a free pair of brand new headlights.....

Sounds like a solution in the making. Maybe some has a damaged tail light or head light assy that they could donate to the cause. I have had many classics in my life and all of them have had parts issues. It's only the high volume classics the receive attention in masses. Many early Cadillacs has same issues. When it comes to parts it's all in time for most.

I've had many Cadillacs and Corvettes. It a matter of time for the XLR. This fornum is a voice for what the future may bring. I'm new to the XLR and am already learning about people out there looking to help. Spoke to Travis at vetteronics 1 (618) 975-3607. He seemed to be knowledgble in the repair of the lights. Now I'm thinking if he knows how to dissassemble the lights and put them back together maybe he is the one to contact for parts for 3D imaging.

If we love the cars cars we can never give up.